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Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc?

We lawyers are supposed to be reasonable, logical folk. We’re supposed to resist logical fallacies like post hoc ergo propter hoc. But sometimes it’s just too hard.

For example:

It’s hard to resist concluding that the announcement that changes need to be made was a result of the decision to run for DA.

Here’s another one:

It’s hard not to conclude that the change in Harris County’s top cop’s email policy was a result of the wide dissemination of Harris County’s top prosecutor’s politically-devastating emails, possibly combined with the then-pending news investigation of the interesting relationship between Leroy Hermes and Tommy Thomas (and, incidentally, other county officials with input into the jail contract).

This one mystifies me, though:

This from the office that blames the grand jury for no-bills in killer-cop cases, and hides behind the jury in other indicted cases. Don’t get me wrong: I think the DA’s office should absolutely dismiss cases in which further investigation reveals that the grand jury likely got it wrong, or that there may be probable cause (the grand jury’s standard) but not proof beyond a reasonable doubt.

But here the dismissal was immediate — it was announced the day the indictment was handed down. If Rosenthal hadn’t been disowned by the Republican leadership, the political motivation for the dismissal would be more clear. On the other hand, if Rosenthal hadn’t been disowned by the Republican leadership, the dismissal would have been a politically-dangerous move in an election year. Maybe someone else can shed some light on how Rosenthal might benefit from dismissing Medina’s case. Or maybe he doesn’t, and he dismissed it because it was just the right thing to do — part of “literally and figuratively” getting his house in order?

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